EUCYes: Sell

Current price:
bid 8, ask 10, last 8
Due date:
1 January 2010
Recommendation:
Sell.
Comment:
Since the previous post about EUCYes, not a single opinion poll in France has shown a majority for Yes. In addition, recent polls in the Netherlands are indicating that the result of the Dutch referendum three days later may result in a No too.
My current holdings in this claim: -110.

Arinze: Sell

Current price:
bid 6, ask 7, last 6
Due date:
1 March 2010
Recommendation:
Sell.
Comment:
As reported earlier, this claim will be resolved in the coming days. Paddy Power is running bets on who will be the next pope, and they are currently taking bets at 1:8 for Arinze. If you divide 1:8 by the sum of all odds (2.645), you get a probability of 4.7%, which is below the current bidding price.
My current holdings in this claim: -107

Arinze: Sell

Current price:
bid 10, ask 13, last 10
Due date:
1 March 2010
Recommendation:
Sell.
Comment:
Pope John Paul II died on 2 April 2005, and a conclave to elect a new pope will gather in less than 20 days. Arinze is often mentioned as a good candidate, but his chances are usually estimated to be less than 10%, often even lower. Many observers of the Vatican have suggested that a transition figure may be elected, and that would rather be an older Italian cardinal.
My current holdings in this claim: -114